Why Do Some People Think Irish Immigration Protests are a British Plot?

False Consciousness, and knowing how popular your opponents views are

Over the past couple of weeks, a high-status conspiracy theory that’s been circulating in Ireland for a while has become more popular - namely that the key driver of anti-immigration protest movement are people and groups from outside Ireland, particularly the UK; that the movement is being led by British or British-aligned people for the purposes of attacking Sinn Féin and undermining and derailing the quest for Irish Unity in particular.

In this theory people who oppose Immigration are Unionist dupes where they are not actually members of Unionist political or paramilitary groups; there are also some dark mutterings about NATO involvement. Not everyone who expounds the theory believes every part of it, but that’s the gist - the British are behind everything. What’s the basis of the Conspiracy Theory?

Exponents will often point out that some of the people involved in the protests have institutional links to the UK in their past. In the last week or so there was a flurry of excitement on twitter when a Sky News story began circulating showing that the majority of people who used the hashtag “Ireland is full”, favoured by anti-immigration activists, were from America.

Similarly, it’s definitely true that the anti-immigration activism gets a lot of coverage from right-wing or conservative media outside Ireland whenever it does anything. The massive recent protest was covered in a long live broadcast by GB News, and other outlets such as Rebel Media from Canada were also onsite. The protests are regularly covered by people like Tucker Carlson, and online by various Twitter aggregators.

Some of the evidence is more attitudinal. The protestors who have taken to the streets in recent weeks to protests immigration often target the government but just as frequently direct their ire at Sinn Féin, booing pictures of Mary Lou McDonald, chanting “Sinn Féin are traitors” or hounding their representatives in real life or on social media for perceived flip-flopping on immigration.

This is positioned as sinister by Sinn Féin, because the anti-immigration protestors style themselves as nationalists but oppose the key exponents of Irish Unification; and because Sinn Féin have not been in government in the Republic of Ireland since the formation of the state and can legitimately say they have not been responsible for implementing the policies the protestors object to. The conclusion SF supporters have reached, in public at least, is that this can only be explained by the British Plot and a covert desire to forestall unification.

The best argument against the conspiracy theory is to simply look at the level of demographic change Ireland has experienced and the space of time in which it’s happened, and the crowds at protests, and apply Occam's Razor. Ireland was in the middle of a generational housing crisis, immigration had been going up quickly for more than two decades, and we decided to suddenly increase our population by whole percentage points in a couple of months. Real public concern has been continually reflected in polling on the subject in recent months.

There is historic consistency as well. As I recently wrote for Unherd, there is a deep history of violent reaction in Ireland whem some people feel that land and property is being distributed against their interests, so no one should be surprised that in extremis we have the situation that we have. You can critique the nature of that response (just because it’s happened in the past doesn't mean it’s ok) and the consistency of it (if foreign involvement in land and property bothers you, why not attack vulture funds?) but it’s pretty obvious that it’s not astroturfed.

Nebulous accusations of “outside agitators” were in full force after the events at Newtownmountkennedy, where there was a mini-riot over housing of migrants who were being moved from Mount Street. But all four of the people arrested and released there were locals. That hasn’t always been the case; after the riot in Dublin City Centre have often been from outside the area (have a look at the list of people arrested after the riots in the city centre - some were from that area, plenty weren’t). But even in that case it’s not clear what that proves; for left wing causes we assume it’s natural for causes to be globalised. In any case pretence that most of the people who attended the anti-immigration protest in Dublin in May travelled down from an Orange Lodge is really stupid and embarrassing.

The prominence of outside voices is exaggerated because of the constrained media landscape here. Ireland’s size means it has a very narrow media market and a climate of cultural consensus, meaning that media and public discussion of the subject crowds around what is perceived as the safest status quo opinion and dampens everything else. The upshot of that is that critical views of mass migration and demographic change that are common amongst any general populace are totally marginal in the public square. Anyone who holds those views or is curious about them has to look to mostly look to non-Irish media organisations or figures to facilitate that discussion, or if you're an activist on those subjects, to boost the prominence of those issues. Similarly the prominence of those outlets and voices will appear greater because there is no countervailing local equivalent, with the exception of Gript.

The long term solution to the prominence of external commentators on Irish immigration woes would be for the legacy Irish media to undercut them by providing a different type of commentary on the issue, but they seemingly aren’t capable of doing that, so here we are.

Many of the people pointing at the Sky News poll were simultaneously tweeting about campus protests in the US and yet don’t make the connection that they are participating in the very foreign interference they are decrying, just from the other direction. Pick any left wing activist topic you like and you will find foreign links, from Katherine Zappone at abortion protests to SF kneeling for black lives matter. Sinn Féin themselves have in the past been recipients of lavish funding from America. I’m not complaining about any of this and don’t think it’s discrediting to the individual causes. The culture wars are globalised and people have a right to get involved in and talk about whatever interests them.

Why do people want to believe that this stuff about a British Plot is true?

The first reason is that it hurts people to think that Ireland is this way. Many left-wing people are sincere and sensitive and it strikes at their soul to see a crowd of Irish people marching down the Liffey and screaming “Out! Out! Out!” at foreigners. I find that sympathetic. They believe sincerely that there is something about that which stands in opposition to their conception of Irishness, and they will look for anything that confirms that it’s fake, or imported, or represents a corruption from outside.

There is a strain of thought in Ireland that is convinced of the inherently socialist and globalist nature of Irish nationalism - respectable opinion has worked hard to keep those views unchallenged and to keep of anti-immigration activism radioactive; the internet and events have popped that bubble.

The other side of that coin is that they don’t actually believe what they’re saying; their POV is that too close a connection to Britishness is inherently discrediting to any political cause in Ireland, particularly anyone looking to adopt a pose of nationalism or the mantle of republicanism. Whether it’s true or not it forces your opponent into a defensive position and causes uncommitted onlookers to wonder what your opponent’s motivations are. That can be enough to chip a percentage point off someone’s support and along with other tactics reduce the support coming from the public.

It’s worth lingering on this point for a little while since it’s the core of the plot. Every country has a small number of unifying factors that everyone buys into from all parts of the political spectrum, and all parties desperately try to link their every action to. In the UK it’s the NHS. Support for Israel was once such a topic in america. In Ireland for historical reasons everyone at every level can make hay by accusing someone else of being a British dupe. I wrote an article during the campaign to repeal the abortion restrictions that showed the same accusations coming from the right - that Britishness was a kind of corrupting infection polluting a clean Irish culture.

Finally I suppose you have to consider whether people believe this stuff - about a British plot - because there’s some fragment of truth in it. In principle it’s very likely that any disruptive protest movement can be infiltrated from outside forces to steer it in directions that they prefer politically. That’s true of anti-immigration activism, just as it was of historic causes like the protests against various EU treaties which SF led out on.

A different contemporary point of comparison are the current Palestine protests. In Ireland these protests are often led out on by non-Irish people, and attended by them in great numbers. There have also been claims - mainly outside Ireland - that international protests in favour of Palestine can only be explained as a sinister foreign interference. I don’t think that’s true in Ireland. The fact that you can find a handful of tweets and link them to bad actors doesn’t inherently render the popularity of a cause suspect, particularly when there are so many uncomplicated historic explanations Irish people and others support a cause. The potential for corruption by outside forces, or their mere interest, isn’t inherently discrediting of the popular support for any individual movement.

When I was in school and parents or teachers warned us off cheating in exams, the phrase they always used was “you’re only fooling yourself”. Even if you cheat successfully, the whole point is to learn something and carry that forward so the real losers are not the authorities, or your opponents, but you. That’s what pops into my mind whenever I see the British Plot. What got us into our present political mess on immigration was in part a decision by the media, government and activists to simply deny critical talk had any place in our system, putting it entirely outside the system and beyond their control.

This British Plot attitude is a continuation of that other attitude, and therefore a deepening of the problem that got us here in the first place. When you trick yourself into thinking something is true that’s not true, who benefits? You see this all the time on the right too. The involvement of NGOs, activists and outside interests is often the cherry on top of a movement rather than the whole sundae. I completely understand anyone who is upset or repulsed by what they're seeing in Ireland at the moment and wants to find some evidence that they're not really seeing it; but it’s important to know when your opponent is hitting a nerve, and not to Psyop yourself.